The ONS (National Electric System Operator) released the update of the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) with data relating to the last week of May.
The document presents a scenario of stability in cargo demand and below-average inflows across the country, in addition to presenting the expected levels for reservoirs and the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) values by region.
According to the bulletin, the load of the without (National Interconnected System) should end May with a 1,6% decline compared to the same month last year, reaching 77.779 average MW. The largest reduction is expected in the Southeast/Central-West subsystem, with a 4,9% drop (43.146 average MW).
The other regions indicate load growth in the annual comparison: the North should an increase of 5% (8.059 average MW), the Northeast an increase of 2,7% (13.388 average MW), and the South, growth of 1,7% (13.186 average MW).
Turnout still below average
The ENA (Influent Natural Energy) projection remains below the MLT (Long Term Average) in all SIN subsystems.
ENA represents the volume of water that reaches reservoirs for generating electricity. MLT is a historical average used as a reference to determine whether the current period is drier or rainier than normal.
According to the ONS bulletin, the South region should reach 37% of the MLT in May – a slight improvement compared to the 31% forecast the previous week. The other regions should end the month with the following percentages:
- Southeast/Midwest: 84% of MLT;
- North: 67% of MLT;
- Northeast: 46% of MLT.
“Compared to the previous week, the expected rainfall volume in the South region is more favorable, and this is good news after a prolonged period with little precipitation. Although the period was one of caution, the electrical system continued to supply energy to society normally,” said Marcio Rea, general director of ONS.
Reservoirs and CMO
Regarding reservoir levels, the estimate for May 31 indicates stability in the North and Northeast subsystems, with 97,7% and 73,7% of water accumulated in the reservoirs to be used in the generation of electrical energy, respectively.
The Southeast/Central-West should reach 68,9%, while the South should end the month with 34,3%. The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) for the next operating week is defined as follows:
- North and Northeast: R$ 273,70/MWh;
- Southeast/Midwest: R$ 275,30/MWh;
- Sul: R$ 309,07/MWh.
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