The newest study of EPE (Energy Research Company) – the PDE Study Notebook (Ten-Year Expansion Plan) 2034 – foresees investments necessary for the expansion do transmission system until 2034. Data on transmission lines have information relating to June 2024.
O report projects that the country will receive investments of R$ 128,6 billion for construction of 30 thousand km of new transmission lines and 82 thousand MVA in new substations 2034 up.
The research analyzes several possibilities for implementing the projects, taking into planning uncertainties, especially in relation to new technologies to meet the demands of data centers and hydrogen.
In total, there are three possible scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and balanced.. The scenario adopted as reference is the weighted one. The document also contains information on estimates for the evolution of the without (National Interconnected System) and the economic outlook for the sector.
The high demand for Data Centers is a point of attention in the study, which sees growth in this type of enterprise in the medium and long term.
Thus, the document points out that, until 2037, twelve projects of the area connected to the Basic Network will come into operation. They are two in Ceara with 876 MW; nine in Sao Paulo with 1602.1 MW; and one in Rio Grande do Sul with 50 MW.
Furthermore, the document addresses the issue of expanding transmission to meet the significant demand projected for hydrogen production plants in the coming years.
Due to the high level of renewability da brazilian electrical matrix and the high availability of renewable sources for expansion, Brazil has been identified as a promising market for the entry of electro-intensive projects, like the data centers and the industry of low carbon hydrogen.
Nine projects have already filed processes for connection to the Basic Network with the MME, with an accumulated demand of 35,9 GW by 2038. This value corresponds to more than double the current peak load. of the entire Northeast Region, around 16,0GW, measured in November 2023.
There are two projects in Piauí, with an estimated 26,8 GW; six projects in Ceará, with 8,5 GW; and one in Bahia, with 600 MW. The report points out that one of the main challenges of this study will be to define the amount of hydrogen load for which the transmission system will be dimensioned.
Other studies
The increase in the export capacity of the Northeast region and the import capacity of the South region is also the focus of the notebook, and aims to provide integration safe from 10 GW additional renewable generation in the Northeast region and enable the increase in import capacity in the South region by up to 4 GW.
O EPE study also talks about results regarding the expansion of the transmission system with the presentation of the physical evolution of the network and investment projections.
It also presents relevant issues regarding the planning of transmission expansion., as a description of the transmission studies highlighted in this planning cycle, and information on the evolution of exchange capacities between the geoelectric regions of the SIN.
Besides projections on potential investments to be carried out on behalf of assets at the end of their regulatory life; mapping of the quantity of contracts de granting of assets of the transmission that will expire in the coming years; and general considerations on the evolution of TUST (Tariffs for Use of the Transmission System).
Access the Power Transmission notebook here
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