O first half of 2023 was marked by a reducing significant of the price of photovoltaic modules imported into the Brazil, especially in the Chinese market, resulting in a reduction in the investment required to implement solar energy projects.
A study released by the consultancy greener, for example, highlighted that the increase in Chinese production capacity resulted in a excess supply of polycrystalline silicon, leading to a large inventory and a consequent significant drop in price.
Yet, over the last few weeks, the value of solar s has remained stable in the market and raised questions from integrators and companies in the solar sector. After all, how should the price of photovoltaic modules behave until the end of the year?
To try to answer this question and keep the market well informed, the Canal Solar heard the evaluation of companies and professionals in the solar energy sector to find out what the market prospects are.
Philip Santos, sales director at Dah Solar in Latin America, he estimates that the prices of photovoltaic modules should rise from October onwards, but nothing that will scare the national market.
“We have seen, in recent weeks, a slight stabilization in the prices of photovoltaic modules, with small drops occurring due to manufacturers still having stock. In other words, these companies are reducing prices a little to try to clear their inventory,” he said.
As a result, Santos highlighted that there is an upward trend in module prices in the coming months, as increases are already happening in the chain upstream (beginning of the production chain, which includes raw materials such as silicon, wafers and cells).
"You don't upstream, the prices have already started to rise. This is an indication that the downstream chain has already cleared the stock and manufacturers have new products, meaning that prices are now starting to rise for polysilicon, wafers and cells,” he said.
However, as companies still have stock on the top of the chair, the DAH Solar executive believes that the price of modules should rise within two months.
“I don’t believe prices will explode, because there is a lot of supply. Unlike last year, which had very high demand, today a lot of production capacity has already been added to the system and I do not believe that we will have a lack of product supply”, highlighted the executive.
Roberto CaurimCEO of Bluesun, commented that he has been hearing from his suppliers for over a year that the prices of photovoltaic modules will increase, but that, over the period, the value has only decreased. “I understand that we have reached our limit price and that there will be no further reductions in the value of modules [in 2023]”, he highlighted.
According to the executive, some Chinese manufacturers are announcing that the price of solar s should increase in two or three months, but he points out that, even if this happens, it is not something that will impact the national market quickly, since several companies in the sector have already They took advantage of the low price of products to renew their stocks.
In practice, this means that even if increases occur from October onwards, Brazilian distributors would have no reason to increase the prices of modules resold in the country. “Bluesun, for example, recently renewed its stock at a very low price. It is the lowest in our entire history”, he stressed.
Wladimir Janousek, executive director at JCS Consulting and Services and international market specialist, explains that the market has seen a recovery in polysilicon prices in recent weeks, with increases of 4,8% at the beginning of the month and 1,5% last week.
“These increases have not yet been reflected in the prices of wafers, cells and modules, which have remained stable, showing slight changes. The scenario presents an upward bias, with a resumption of the volume of business and projects, which should result in an increase in demand and repositioning of the prices of the chain's inputs, with a consequent adjustment in the price of the modules”, said the executive.
According to Janousek, these adjustments will be conditioned on stocks and idle capacity in the industry in China. “We may have different price references between manufacturers, until these elements have been leveled”, he pointed out.
