According to data collected by the Canal Solar, polysilicon production reached approximately 392.000 MT (metric tons), which represent 144 GW, in 1st half of this year in the world.
For the second half of the year, production is expected to reach 482.000 MT, corresponding to 180 GW. In total, 324 GW of real supply of this material is estimated by the end of the year, 4 GW more than the forecast made at the beginning of 2022.
As regards the silicon ingot, were 424 GW of capacity in the last six months. The number is expected to reach 528 GW later this year, a 53% increase year over year.
Manufacturers' expansion plans
To get an idea of the high demand for polysilicon, There are 330.000 metric tons of newly added annual production capacity, according to the expansion plans of all manufacturers. Are they:
- Tongwei Phase 2 Project in Baotou, China, with 50.000 MT of annual production capacity (co-invested with Trina Solar);
- GCL's 30.000 MT granular polysilicon project in Xuzhou, China;
- GCL's 100.000 MT granular polysilicon project in Leshan, China;
- TBEA project in Baotou with 100.000 MT;
- Lihao Phase 1 Project in Xining, China, with 50.000 MT.
"The China market will be very strong in 2022. Probably 100 GW should be delivered, 30% to 50% in the last six months,” he said. Fernando Castro, Country Manager at JA Solar in Brazil.
In Castro's view, there are many expectations for the new silicon facilities to begin production in the third and fourth quarter of this year, increasing total available capacity.
“However, we believe that, due to the usual 'ramp up' issues, the effective increase in availability will only occur in the second or third quarter of 2023. Therefore, 2022 silicon prices will not be significantly reduced”, He stressed.
Polysilicon price
The last update of InfoLink, held this Wednesday (10), highlighted that the real polysilicon supply expected to reach 72.000-73.000 MT in August.
It increase should occur due to new production capacities coming into operation, despite Daqo and TBEA undergoing line inspections, Yongxiang faces power rationing in Leshan and manufacturing accidents, directly affecting the East Hope production volume.
“In this context, we revised the production volume forecast made at the beginning of this month. Theoretically, eliminating losses, the monthly volume could be close to the limit of 80.000 MT”, said the consultancy.
“But in reality things remain in a complicated situation. Polysilicon prices have soared, as supply is still below demand in the ingot segment. From August onwards, the supply squeeze persists and could decrease until the fourth quarter of the year”, they highlighted.
For example, costs continue to rise for monograde polysilicon. Manufacturers closed new orders at RMB 297-308/kg, despite minor differences and varying order g timelines.
"The upward price trend will certainly continue this month. Some non-long-term orders are signed at RMB 310/kg,” the company reported.
InfoLink's investigation covers polysilicon prices where orders were delivered from last Thursday (4) until this Wednesday (10) and signed recently.
Wafer Price
As of this month, still subject to short polysilicon supply, the company indicated that the ingot segment is unable to bring all new production capacity into operation, maintaining utilization rates at 71-74%.
“Limited polysilicon supply reduces mono-Si wafer production volume, which reaches 26,9-27,8 GW in August. The gaps between the production volume shares of different formats increase, with the share of M10 growing faster”, they pointed out.
Still according to InfoLink, wafer prices are unlikely to fall in the short term, as the upstream cost trend remains quite dominant as it is subject to limited supply.
“However, local authorities initiate industrial power cuts of varying degrees in response to high temperatures in China, from which the cell sector will receive more direct impacts. Therefore, the industry is now paying attention to whether energy rationing will affect wafer demand”, they analyzed.
Given this scenario, the future price trend it will depend on demand slowing and module manufacturers successfully suppressing value increases upstream.
In July, for example, on the 21st, Zhonghuan ended up raising the prices of 210 mm wafers with a thickness of 155 μm by RMB 0,38/piece to RMB 9,93/piece, an increase of 4%.
On July 25, LONGi announced that it had adjusted the thickness of its M10 p-type wafers to 155μm and prices rose 4% to RMB 7,54/piece. The prices of p-type M6 cells with a thickness of 160μm are marked up by 4,1% to be RMB 6,33/piece.
Cell Price
Another point highlighted by InfoLink is that buyer-seller negotiations continue this week. Energy rationing amid summer heatwaves affects the production of some manufacturers. “Still, the values are sustained, remaining in RMB 1,28/W, RMB 1,29-1,31/W and RMB 1,27-1,28/W for M6, M10 and G12 cells".
“Rationing affects the cell’s real production. Given this shortage, cell costs are not expected to fall and will remain high next week,” they commented.
Module price
According to the consultancy, prices stagnated amid weak demand in August, with serious project inertia as the market reports successive project delays this week.
For now, glass-back modules with power over 500 W are supplied at RMB 1,93-2,05/W (ground transportation costs excluded) and their glass-to-glass equivalents at RMB 1,95-2,08 /W (land transportation costs excluded).
New orders are few, priced at RMB 1,95/W for centralized-scale ground-mounted projects and RMB 2/W for DG (distributed generation) projects.
In the external market, values remain at last week's level at US$0,267-0,275/W (FOB) in the Asia-Pacific region and US$0,27-0,285/W in Australia. In the US, prices remain at US$0,34-0,38/W, and US$0,55-0,58/W for locally manufactured s.
In Europe, glass-backed modules with a capacity above 500 W are supplied for US$ 0,26-0,285/W and US$ 0,285-0,29/W in the spot market.
N-type technology
This week, prices temporarily stabilize, as the segment has not yet seen many cost quotes for N-type products. G12 HJT modules are expected to be available by the end of the third quarter. In the fourth, InfoLink is deciding whether to disclose the spot price, considering the mass production activities of all manufacturers.
Regarding the value of M6 HJT cells, for example, it reaches RMB 1,39-1,5/W due to the increase in production costs. M10 and G12 TOPCon cells were not traded much, mainly purchased for internal capacities, at RMB 1,32-1,41/W.
Furthermore, they reported that costs are temporarily sustained this week, reaching RMB 2,07-2,3/W for M6 HJT modules and US$0,29-0,33/W in overseas markets.
“Prices for M10 and G12 TOPCon s remain where they were last week, at RMB 2,07-2,12/W for monofacials, RMB 2,1-2,17/W for bifacials, and around $0,28 .0,31-XNUMX/W in foreign markets”, concluded the consultancy.
