Have you ever imagined seeing the cost of photovoltaic energy in the range of one cent? Currently it seems to be unfeasible, but it could happen in the future. This is according to Ramez Naam, a renewables investor in the United States, who predicts that solar energy will cost one to two cents per kWh in “reasonably sunny” regions by 2035.”
Naam examined the global average costs of India, China and the US – countries that contribute two-thirds of the levelized cost of energy generated by solar plants – and applied Wright's Law, which suggests that each doubling in production produces a fixed reduction in costs. Result: the price of solar electricity drops by 30 to 40% for each doubling in the deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity.
“Modeling this price drop leads me to predict that solar will continue to fall faster than I expected, and will ultimately reach lower prices than virtually anyone expected. These are absurdly cheap prices in global ”, explained Naam.
Examples
According to the investor, in sunny parts of the world, with low capital costs, you could see unsubsidized solar in the future in the range of US$0,01 or 0,02/kWh. “In California, we could see unsubsidized solar at $0,025/kWh. In Northern Europe, we could see utility-scale photovoltaics routinely priced between US$0,04 and 0,05/kWh”, he exemplified.
