The Southeast/Central-West subsystem should end November with 43,5% EAR (Stored Energy), exceeding the initial forecast of 40,2% by around three percentage points.
The region also has a positive performance in ENA (Natural Affluent Energy), which reflects the rainfall in hydroelectric reservoirs, reaching 116% of the MLT (Long Term Average), above the historical average.
In the South and North submarkets, reservoir levels are expected to remain stable. In the North, the EAR is expected to close the month at 52,2%, slightly below the initial forecast of 53,1%. In the South, the index is expected to reach 56,9%, compared to the 56% previously forecast.
However, the Northeast recorded the largest deviation, with the final EAR estimated at 45,1%, below the predicted 48,2%. The ENA, in turn, should reach 78% of the MLT in the South, 72% in the North and 71% in the Northeast.
The energy demand in the SIN (National Interconnected System) should show slight stability in relation to the forecasts from the beginning of November, with an estimated increase of 0,7%, reaching 80.400 MW average, compared to the 81.795 MWmed initially projected (+1%).
By submarket, the expected loads are as follows
- Southeast/Central-West: 48.897 MWmed (+5,3%);
- North: 8.254 MWmed (+8,3%);
- South: 14.377 MWmed (+7,3%);
- Northeast: 13.872 MWmed (+2%).
Initial projections indicated
- Southeast/Central-West: 45.755 MWmed (-1%);
- North: 8.256 MWmed (+8,3%);
- South: 13.997 MWmed (+4,5%);
- Northeast: 13.787 MWmed (+1,3%).
The CMO (Marginal Cost of Operation), which was R$177,43/MWh at the beginning of the month, fell significantly, reaching R$90,83/MWh this week.
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