A ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) announced that the tariff flag for the month of June will be red – level 1, representing an increase in the cost of electricity for Brazilian consumers. With the new signaling, the extra amount charged for every 100 kWh consumed increases from R$1,885 (in effect in May, under the yellow flag) to R$4,463. This is the highest tariff flag recorded in 2025.
Between January and April, the flag was green (no additional cost on the electricity bill); in May, it changed to yellow; and now it has reached the red level, indicating more expensive conditions for energy generation in the country. According to ANEEL, the decision was motivated by unfavorable hydrological conditions, with the reduction in rainfall and the end of the wet season in the country.
“Given the scenario of below-average inflows across the country indicated by ONS (National System Operator), a reduction in hydroelectric generation is projected in relation to the previous month, with an increase in generation costs due to the need to activate more expensive energy sources, such as thermoelectric plants”, the Agency informed in an official note.
Analysis of the current scenario
Ao Canal Solar, Fred Menezes, Trading Director at Armor Energia, assessed that the energy tariff should remain high in the coming months. According to him, the return of the green flag should only occur with the resumption of the rainy season, expected for October or November. “The operator (ONS) is using thermal plants to save the reservoir during these dry months. As no significant changes in rainfall conditions are expected in the coming months, the most likely scenario is the maintenance of the red flag during this period”, he explained.
According to him, although the reservoirs are still at comfortable levels, the Operator risk aversion model became more sensitive this year, therefore, thermal activation has been carried out in a more conservative manner than in the past.
Understand the tariff flag system
Created in 2015 by the company itself ANEEL, tariff flag system adjusts the value of the electricity bill monthly, according to the energy generation conditions in the country. The colors indicate:
- Green: no additional cost;
- Yellow: moderate extra cost;
- Red (levels 1 and 2): higher additional cost, reflecting the use of more expensive generation sources, such as thermoelectric plants.
The model's objective is to provide greater transparency to consumers and to alert them to the real costs of energy generation. With the activation of the red flag level 1 in June, ANEEL seeks to reinforce the importance of conscious use of electricity and attention to consumption habits during the dry season.
Tariff flags: what are they and how do they impact your energy bill?
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