Consumers who choose to migrate to the Free Energy Market in 2025 they should see a greater advantage than that recorded last year with regard to average energy costs.
This finding is due to the fact that the average price of the portfolio of energy purchase contracts from distributors to serve the captive market (Pmix) is expected to increase by around 9% this year, rising to R$270,00/MWh.
This is what the projection released by TR Soluções shows, through Sete (Energy Tariff Estimation Service) – a market intelligence platform of the company, which monitors distribution and generation tariffs in Brazil.
“The increase in Pmix is mainly associated with the fact that, this year, there should be no surplus in the CCRBT (Centralizing for Tariff Flag Resources),” explains the director of regulation at TR Soluções, Helder Sousa.
Pmix values vary according to the distribution concessionaires, as shown in the following graph.
Last year, the Pmix fell by 6%, associated with the record surplus of the Flag , of almost R$10 billion, in February 2024. In the following month, this surplus balance began to be returned to consumers in the distributors' tariff processes.
“As practically the entire balance was related to hydrological issues, its tariff impact came in the form of relief from the energy purchase component, that is, the Pmix,” says Sousa.
Tendency
Although expectations for 2025 indicate an increase in the Pmix of dealerships, TR Soluções projects growth below inflation in the following years.
“This is happening due to the end of the supply of the first new energy auctions, being replaced by cheaper contracts”, highlights the company’s director of regulation, referring to contracts for thermal plants using fuel oil, diesel oil and mineral coal.
The projections also take into the prospect that consumers in the South, Southeast and Central-West regions will see a relief in the cost of energy due to the promised reduction in Itaipu's tariff in 2027.
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