The growth of solar energy generation on rooftops, facades and small plots of land will bring more than R$86,2 billion in systemic benefits to the electricity sector in Brazil over the next decade. As a result, these resources will reduce the electricity bills of all consumers, including those who do not have their own solar system, by 5,6%.
This is what an unprecedented study by specialized consultancy pointed out. volt robotics, commissioned by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy). Based on the official growth scenario designed for solar DG (distributed generation) of PDE 2031 (Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2031), it will jump from the current 11 GW to 37,2 GW in 2031.
Thus, in average scenarios, this technology will reduce the frequency of triggering the red flag in electricity tariffs by around 60% for Brazilian consumers in ten years. In the case of scenarios with the possibility of a new water crisis, such as those suffered in 2001, 2014 and 2021, the reduction in the occurrence of the most expensive tariff flags for consumers reaches 17%.
Cost of electrical energy
Regarding the cost of electricity in the country, prorated and paid by all consumers, the survey showed that the growth of photovoltaic DG will represent a reduction of R$34 billion in costs ed on to consumers. This will provide a 2,2% reduction in electricity tariffs by 2031.
Regarding sectoral charges, costs that are also borne by Brazilian consumers, the reduction will be R$11,5 billion, resulting in a 0,8% drop in electricity rates. According to Volt Robotics, another benefit will be the reduction of financial risk on fuel price variations, a cost covered by consumers, with a drop of R$24,2 billion and 1,5% lower rates for the population.
Reductions in electrical losses in transmission lines and distribution networks will bring additional savings of R$8,2 billion over ten years, guaranteeing Brazilians a 0,5% drop in electricity tariffs.
Peak hours
The study also projected the relief brought by distributed generation on demand during the peak hours of the Brazilian electrical system, currently recorded between 10 am and 16 pm, a period in which solar DG has greater capacity to generate and deliver energy to the system. In this case, the calculated reduction is R$1,6 billion in the period.
Solar energy generation in the NE and SE
Another point highlighted by the work of the consulting firm's experts is the effect of this technology on reducing prices between the electricity submarkets in the Northeast and Southeast, estimated at R$8,5 billion over the next decade, resulting in a 1,5% drop in consumer rates. In practice, they concluded that photovoltaic systems on rooftops and small plots of land reduce the overload on exchange systems, reducing electricity costs for those who buy and consume in the Southeast and improving price levels for those who sell energy produced in the Northeast.
About the study
Entitled “Contributions of self-generation of solar energy to reducing the electricity bills of all Brazilians”, the study presents the contributions of photovoltaic DG to reducing electricity prices in the country. In addition, it outlines future scenarios with projections for reducing electricity rates for all consumers, based on the insertion of distributed solar systems in cities and rural areas.
The data from consultancy Volt Robotics focused on calculating the so-called “systemic benefits to the electricity sector” and does not include other socioeconomic and environmental gains.
