One of the main topics that has been dominating Brazilian news in recent weeks is the spike in the dollar in relation to the real – something that directly impacts the price of imported products.
In this sense, the solar energy sector ends up being one of the most affected, since the vast majority of equipment sold in the national market is purchased in other countries by distributors before being resold.
Roberto Caurim, CEO of Bluesun, explains that, basically, the Brazil face today two great pressures that are strongly impacting the cost of photovoltaic equipment.
“The first one is shipping, which rose from US$3 to US$10 in a short space of time. The other is the pressure on the dollar, which is the currency we use for all international commercial transactions,” he said.
In an interview with Canal Solar, the executive pointed out that, as a result of the current scenario, the Brazilian solar energy market should go through a second semester marked by an increase in price on photovoltaic kits.
“There will be increases in the market. If a distributor does not raise the price now, it runs a huge risk of not being able to repurchase stock to serve its integrators in the near future. This is because the equipment became around 20% more expensive,” he said.
According to Caurim, this pressure is on all distributors, which will result in an increase in the price of photovoltaic kits. “Any market economy, with a little robustness, increases the price when there are pressures that increase its cost”, he explained.
“We saw the price of modules drop significantly when the Wp price in China. At the time, shipping was cheaper and the dollar was lower. They should rise now, unless there is an unexpected change of scenery”, he highlighted.
In the case of Sea freight, the executive highlights that there is no prospect of a fall for the second half of the year. “The value should remain very close to current costs until the end of the year. If it falls, it will fall a little, according to the shipowners with whom we have conversations.”
On the other hand, in the case of dollar “There is no way to predict what will happen, since the North American currency fluctuates due to a series of factors, especially political ones”, highlighted Caurim.
Dollar rise
At the beginning of this week, the value of US currency has overcome the barrier of R$5,66 – the highest level since first quarter of 2022.
On Wednesday night (3), after a whole day of meetings, the Federal government announced a R$25 billion cut in expenses and promised that the fiscal framework will be complied with.
The measure eased investors' concerns after a series of criticisms by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) of the Central Bank of Brazil and the president of the institution, Roberto Campos Neto.
This Thursday (4), the dollar fell sharply and closed the day at a price below R$ 5,50 – a value, nevertheless, considerably higher than it was at the beginning of the year (R$ 4,85, in January).
In the first half of this year, the real was the fifth currency that depreciated the most in the world in relation to the dollar, with an accumulated drop of 13,4% in the first six months of 2024.
In this regard, Brazil was only ahead of Nigeria, Egypt, South Sudan and Ghana, which had a devaluation of 42,3% in the period; 36,0%; 29,9%, and 21,6%, respectively, according to a survey by Austin Rating Agency.
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An answer
A flood of modules on the market would be great.