Brazilian consumers' pockets are expected to feel a new impact in the coming weeks, according to projections released by CCEE (Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber) this Thursday (20).
According to report of the entity, there is a high probability that the yellow flag will be activated again in May, which would cause an increase in the electricity bill of R$1,88 for every 100 kWh consumed.
The projection is based on an expectation of reduced rainfall with the start of the dry season – which would compromise reservoir levels and require the activation of thermoelectric, which are more expensive and should require an additional cost to be ed on to consumers.
In February, the Brazilian population already faced a 16,80% increase in electricity tariffs, after the end of a temporary bonus that had alleviated costs in January.
Electricity bills soar, pushing February inflation to its highest level since 2003
The CCEE study also indicates that the increase in electricity bills may persist until June, with the possibility of adopting the red flag between July and December. In this case, the additional cost would be even higher: R$4,46 per 100 kWh at level 1 and R$7,87 at level 2.
Scenarios analyzed
The CCEE survey analyzed four different scenarios based on different precipitation projections: two using historical data (from 2018 and 2021) and two based on updated estimates for 2025.
In three of these four scenarios, the yellow flag is raised in May. In two, a red flag is expected in June; and in three, the red flag is expected in July.
tariff flags
The system tariff flags was created by ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) in 2015 and aims to adjust the cost of the electricity bill for Brazilian consumers on a monthly basis, consisting of the colors green, yellow and red (at levels 1 and 2).
This sequence indicates the cost of energy for the following month: green means there is no additional cost. When the yellow or red flags are applied, the bill increases for every 100 kWh consumed. Yellow indicates a slight increase in the energy bill and red means a higher cost for Brazilians.
The sequence reflects the variable cost of energy production, considering factors such as the availability of water resources, the advancement of renewable sources, as well as the activation of more expensive generation sources such as thermoelectric plants.
According to ANEEL, this signaling makes the consumer active in knowing whether or not they need to use energy more consciously, due to its cost.
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