The electrical energy load (consumption + losses) in the SIN (National Interconnected System) is expected to reach 70.837 average MW in April, a growth of 0,3% compared to the same period of the previous year. The information is contained in the PMO bulletin (Monthly Operation Program), referring to the operational week from April 22nd to 28th.
The result, if confirmed, represents a great frustration in relation to the forecast presented by the ONS (National System Operator) at the beginning of the month. On March 31, the Operator announced that the April load forecast was calculated at 73,181 average MW, which would represent a growth of 3,6%, considering the same comparison basis.
Load growth is expected in April in two submarkets: North, with 6.758 average MW (+ 15,1%), and South, with 11.806 average MW (+ 2,21%). For the Southeast/Central-West and Northeast, a reduction of, respectively, 2,0% (40.879 MWmed) and 0,8% (11.394 MWmed) is expected.
Indications for EAR (Stored Energy) at the end of the month remain throughout the country with percentages above 80% of EAR. The Southeast/Central-West can reach an EAR of 87,4% (87,1% in the last review).
If the result for the region is confirmed, it will be the highest volume for April since 2011 (87,8%). Projections indicate that the South will have 84,6% (compared to 82,9% previously announced). For the Northeast and North, the EAR can reach 90,4% (90%) and 99,7% (99,9%).
The estimated inflow for the Southeast/Central-West at the end of April ed yet another increase. ENA (Affluent Natural Energy) forecasts in the region point to 101% of the Long Term Average (MLT), compared to 96% of the MLT released last week.
The subsystem with the highest ENA on April 30 should be the North, with 107% of the MLT. For the South and Northeast, the prospects for ENA are 95% of MLT and 36% of MLT. The data refers to the last day of the month, which usually marks the end of the typically wet period.
The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) remains at zero in all subsystems for the eighteenth consecutive week. This pattern started at the end of December 2022.
