A EPE (Energy Research Company) opened a Public Consultation to deal with the improvements to the Distributed Micro and Minigeneration (4MD) Market Model, which is a company model to project the dissemination of DG (distributed generation) in Brazil.
Contributions can be sent until February 07, 2023 email [email protected] or [email protected].
Methodology used by EPE in 4MD:
- Define the potential market, that is, given enough time, this entire market will adopt the technology;
- Define the speed at which adoption will occur. Diffusion “S-curves” are estimated to determine whether the process is slower or faster;
- Adopters are divided by technology;
- An average power is assigned to each adopter and the installed MMGD capacity is estimated. Next, the annual values are broken down by month;
- Calculation of electrical energy generation based on installed capacity.
Forguntas a serem respondidas:
- Does it make sense to expand the residential niche market? What cutoff should be applied to define potential adopters?
- Which commercial factor should be used to define the commercial niche market? Is there any market data that can be used as a proxy for this choice?
- Which payback sensitivity factor (SPB) should be used? Is there another curve that better reflects the consumer's interest in making the investment given the return on investment?
- There is a better way to estimate the potential market based on financial metrics other than payback
- What upper limits could be used for the innovation (p) and imitation (q) parameters?
- How to model the migration to the free market and the evolution of the niche market for MMGD in Brazil?
- Is there a suggested methodology to distinguish potential remote and local consumers for non-residential units?
- Which premise for the evolution of the average power of MMGD systems is most appropriate to be incorporated into 4MD?
- Which method can be used to estimate adoption by source?
- Which self-consumption factors can be used, by source and segment?
- Are there additional suggestions related to the methodology?
