EPE opens public consultation to improve MMGD market model

The company's model aims to project the diffusion of distributed generation in Brazil
11-01-23-canal-solar-EPE opens public consultation to improve MMGD’s market model
New GD compensation rules are now in effect. Photo: Envato Elements

A EPE (Energy Research Company) opened a Public Consultation to deal with the improvements to the Distributed Micro and Minigeneration (4MD) Market Model, which is a company model to project the dissemination of DG (distributed generation) in Brazil.

Contributions can be sent until February 07, 2023 email [email protected] or [email protected].

Methodology used by EPE in 4MD:

  • Define the potential market, that is, given enough time, this entire market will adopt the technology;
  • Define the speed at which adoption will occur. Diffusion “S-curves” are estimated to determine whether the process is slower or faster;
  • Adopters are divided by technology;
  • An average power is assigned to each adopter and the installed MMGD capacity is estimated. Next, the annual values ​​are broken down by month;
  • Calculation of electrical energy generation based on installed capacity.

Forguntas a serem respondidas:

  • Does it make sense to expand the residential niche market? What cutoff should be applied to define potential adopters?
  • Which commercial factor should be used to define the commercial niche market? Is there any market data that can be used as a proxy for this choice?
  • Which payback sensitivity factor (SPB) should be used? Is there another curve that better reflects the consumer's interest in making the investment given the return on investment?
  • There is a better way to estimate the potential market based on financial metrics other than payback
  • What upper limits could be used for the innovation (p) and imitation (q) parameters?
  • How to model the migration to the free market and the evolution of the niche market for MMGD in Brazil?
  • Is there a suggested methodology to distinguish potential remote and local consumers for non-residential units?
  • Which premise for the evolution of the average power of MMGD systems is most appropriate to be incorporated into 4MD?
  • Which method can be used to estimate adoption by source?
  • Which self-consumption factors can be used, by source and segment?
  • Are there additional suggestions related to the methodology?
Photo by Mateus Badra
Mateus Badra
Journalist graduated from PUC-Campinas. He worked as a producer, reporter and presenter on TV Bandeirantes and Metro Jornal. He has been following the Brazilian electricity sector since 2020.

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