“I see the solar energy market in Brazil as half full. Even in the face of challenges, the Brazilian market has enormous potential. In 2024, for example, the country sured the 20 GW mark of installed capacity and the world is increasingly turning to Brazil.” This is the analysis of Wellington Araújo, regional director of Sunova Brazil.
During episode #132 of the fourth season of the Papo Solar podcast, broadcast on Tuesday (27), Wellington Araújo was present to discuss the current situation of the electricity sector from the perspective of one of the largest module manufacturers. With the rapid advancement of solar energy in Brazil, manufacturers and integrators face the challenge of constantly adapting to market transformations.
market trends
For Araujo, the challenges we face today are inherent to the accelerated expansion speed that the sector has had in the last 4 years. “Today, we are already talking about new technologies, such as energy storage and BESS is the next market trend”. In addition, he highlighted that one of the incentives for migration is the ex-tariffs, which allows tax exemption for HJT technologies, “consequently, this accelerates the conversation about accelerating heterojunction adoption" if we want to remain competitive in the Brazilian market.”
Former tariffs
“The former tariff represents a direct gain for the end consumer, which is why defending this cause is so important!”, stated the specialist.
Araújo also argued that maintaining the tax benefit reduces the cost of systems and increases access to more modern technologies, ensuring competitiveness in the market and allowing Brazil to keep up with global technological developments. “Repealing this import regime involves not only market factors, but also government decisions, with a direct impact on the entire production chain, in addition to curbing investments,” he explained.
What the market looks like in 2025
Despite the good numbers, the outlook for 2025 looks challenging. The assessment is that the sector is experiencing a moment of global imbalance between supply and demand, with direct repercussions on prices, the entry of new competitors and the pace of growth. “Today, the supply ratio is much greater than the demand ratio, which has thrown this equation out of balance, it is a very disproportionate relationship,” stated Araújo.
According to the company itself, the Brazilian market has become a natural option for large international manufacturers following strong Chinese investment in expanding production capacity for both cells and modules over the past three years. These companies expected to meet growing global demand, which did not materialize at the projected pace.
Araújo, highlighted the main obstacles that the market has faced in the current scenario, especially due to the Selic rate hike and difficulties in accessing credit. According to him, the increase in interest rates has led end consumers to reevaluate where and how to invest, making credit less accessible and more expensive. “Today, taking out credit is not cheap, and this hinders many businesses. Investors are more cautious and looking for other options before committing resources,” he said.
He also reported that according to distributors, it is increasingly difficult to secure financing under favorable conditions, which directly affects the flow of products and the logistics operations of companies. “The lack of credit under competitive conditions ends up compromising the entire operational system of distributors, which is reflected in a drop in sales,” he commented.
In addition to credit, other factors are also a concern: increased competition, the introduction of new taxes, price wars and pressure on costs. “There are many challenging variables that the market has to deal with on a daily basis,” he highlighted.
Regarding the outlook for 2025, the expert expressed caution. Although the Sunova has an ambitious target of delivering 1,2 GW in projects, he believes that this number may not be fully achieved. “My personal prediction is that we will not be able to reach 1,2 GW, but we should close to 1 GW by 2025,” he concluded.
Watch the full episode
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