A solar energy through the big plants left a segment with almost no representation in the national electrical matrix in 2017 to become one of main sources of without (National Interconnected System) in just six years.
Currently, the GC photovoltaic projects (centralized generation) total more than 12 GW of operational capacity, this volume being the double what it was less than a year and a half ago: 6 GW in September 2022, according to data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency).
In addition to the plants in operation, the country also counts with more than 3 thousand projects granted (under construction and not yet started) and which together can add another 132,4 GW to the country when they enter commercial operation.
Data from ABSOLAR (Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association) report that more than R$54 billion in new investments and but of 366,6 thousand jobs already were created by GC solar since the beginning of its expansion in Brazil.
Furthermore, projects of this type also provide revenue to the public coffers that exceeds the mark of R$ 18,2 billion.
“The advancement of solar energy strengthens sustainability and expands Brazil’s international protagonism, in addition to relieving family budgets and reinforcing the competitiveness of Brazilian productive sectors”, he highlighted. Rodrigo SauaiaCEO of ABSOLAR.
Why has GC solar grown so much?
In an interview with Canal Solar, Eduardo Tobias, managing partner of Watt CapitalStresses that two 12 GW in operation, around 5,6 GW are from projects with long-term electricity sales contracts (PPAs) totally or partially in the regulated environment.
“That was the first generation of photovoltaic projects of centralized generation in Brazil. Most of these projects would not have been made viable at that time if it were not for the regulated auctions with quotas for the photovoltaic source,” he said.
The executive goes on to explain that the second generation was that of projects aimed at the Free Energy Market, whose PPAs began to be celebrated mainly in 2018. “Such projects began to come into operation in 2020 and did not depend on government aid. They compete freely with other sources.”
In a third moment, Tobias highlights the projects with self-production contracts through matching, aiming for higher electricity prices for the seller and greater savings for the consumer.
As a result, the volume of annual increase in installed capacity grew significantly in 2022 and 2023, as a result of contracts mostly signed before the start of the lockdowns resulting from Covid-19 from mid-2020.
“On the one hand, the history of the increase in installed project capacity shows the strength and maturity of the sector in Brazil. On the other hand, this number hides the fact that the trend is downward for 2024 and 2025 and that, historically, the photovoltaic sector has added less power to the SIN than the wind source”, he highlighted.
A ABSOLAR, for example, projects an increase of 2024 GW for 3,4 – a lower volume than in 2023. “This trend is also downward for the wind sector. Considering that the capacity factor of the photovoltaic source is significantly lower than that of the wind source, in of volume of electricity produced, the wind sector has grown much faster”, said Tobias.
According to the Watt Capital professional, this downward trend is a consequence of what he calls a “perfect storm” between the years 2020 and 2023, with a combination of an increase in interest rates, an increase in CAPEX, high inflation (in 2020 and 2021), devalued and volatile exchange rate, low demand for new electricity and significant drop in long-term electricity prices (in 2022 and 2023).
“The good news is that, in 2023, photovoltaic CAPEX fell significantly and wind not so much. Furthermore, in the last 12 months, the price of long-term incentivized electricity rose 42,6% – which favors the feasibility of new projects from all sources”, said Tobias.
“With this, I begin the year 2024 with enough optimism for the revival of the centralized renewable generation sector, mainly for independent and associated photovoltaic source projects”, he concluded.
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