The growing demand for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) by 2030 is one of the main challenges for the aviation sector, according to a study released by consultancy Kearney, in partnership with the World Economic Forum.
The analysis, which projects the evolution of SAF production, reveals the opportunities and obstacles faced by airlines and the industry in achieving global decarbonization goals.
According to the study, electrification of large aircraft is not a viable short-term solution to decarbonizing aviation. The good news, however, is that the technology to reduce aviation emissions is already available: SAF.
Sustainable fuel, which can be produced from renewable sources such as biomass and green hydrogen, has become one of the main bets of airlines to reduce their carbon footprint, in the company's assessment.
Decarbonizing aviation: how can SAF reduce emissions in the sector?
Global demand for SAF by 2030
The study of Kearney projects that global demand for SAF will reach 17 million tonnes annually by 2030, which will represent between 4% and 5% of total aviation fuel consumption.
This significant increase is linked to government targets and voluntary commitments from airlines, such as the CORSIA program, which aims to reduce carbon emissions in the sector.
However, the study points out that, although demand targets are clear, the supply of SAF is still far from reaching the levels needed for 2030. The forecast was that, by the end of 2024, the global installed capacity of SAF would reach 4,4 tons.
However, the Kearney considers that, to meet the demand of 17 million tons per year projected by 2030, a substantial increase in production capacity will be necessary, with an expansion of 5,8 tons by 2026.
SAF Production and Scalability Challenges
The study highlights that SAF production technologies, such as HEFA (hydroprocessing of esters and fatty acids), AtJ (Alcohol to Jet) and G-FT (Fischer-Tropsch gasification), face financial, technical and logistical challenges.
These challenges include high production costs and limitations in the availability of raw materials, in addition to the need for adequate infrastructure for fuel distribution.
Furthermore, SAF production requires considerable investment: to achieve production targets by 2030, the industry will need an investment of between US$19 billion and US$45 billion, depending on the combination of technologies used.
“To this growth, it is essential to explore a range of financial models and strategic partnerships. The study suggests alternatives such as loan guarantees, long-term agreements for the purchase of SAF, a mix of private and public investments, and mechanisms for issuing bonds.”green bonds“(green bonds)”, explains Mark Essle, partner at Kearney in Brazil.
Role of government policies and infrastructure
Essle also emphasizes the importance of public policies in driving SAF adoption. According to him, policies such as the European Union's SAF mandate and the ReFuelEU Aviation are seen as fundamental to enabling the sector's transition.
Countries such as the United States, Brazil and South Korea have also committed to the production and use of SAF. However, the study warns that progress depends on a significant expansion of infrastructure, especially in Europe, which will need to increase its local production capacity.
Promising technologies and market opportunities
The study also highlights that by 2030, HEFA will initially be the dominant technology in SAF production due to its technological maturity and lower investment requirements.
Other technologies, such as AtJ, which has greater production potential in countries such as Brazil and Australia, face challenges in markets such as Europe.
Promising technologies such as PtL (Power-to-Liquid), which use surplus renewable energy, also show great potential, but still face cost and scalability barriers.
Finally, the report highlights that for the world to achieve SAF targets and more sustainable aviation by 2030, collaboration between governments, businesses and investors is essential.
In this sense, the combination of strategic partnerships, consistent policies and innovative financial models will be essential to overcome obstacles and ensure the economic and environmental viability of sustainable aviation fuel.
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