In an exclusive meeting with investors held this Wednesday (23) by greener consultancy, experts from the electricity sector discussed the main obstacles to the expansion of centralized energy generation in Brazil.
At the center of the debate, the phenomenon of curtailment — a cut in generation from renewable plants due to excess supply — was highlighted as one of the main obstacles to the advancement of new projects in the country.
With the increasing insertion of intermittent renewable sources, such as solar and wind, the sector has faced a mismatch between energy supply and demand at certain times of the day, especially on weekends.
This imbalance has led the ONS (National Electric System Operator) to adopt containment measures, forcing a reduction in generation to preserve grid stability. For investors, this scenario has generated uncertainty and led many entrepreneurs to adopt a more cautious stance.
The main motivations for curtailment are divided as follows: 40,6% for energy reasons, 36,9% for reliability and 22,6% for unavailability. Energy issues occur mainly on weekends, while reliability factors predominate on weekdays.
During the , Alexandre Oliveira, Renewable Energy Manager at Eneva, highlighted that the advancement of centralized generation needs to be guided by flexibility and quality criteria. For him, solving the curtailment problem will be decisive for the resumption of new investments in the segment.
The main impacts of curtailment are felt by generators, which results in a high perception of risk for new projects. Some possible solutions include contract management, more sophisticated modeling and the use of built-in energy storage systems (BESS).
According to the ists, the ONS has already been carrying out studies and operational adjustments to deal with this new scenario. According to Ricardo Costa, director of Product Intelligence and Regulation at Matrix, after the blackout that occurred on August 15, 2023, attributed to excessive generation and not to the load — as was more common —, the operator increased the safety criteria of the electrical system, causing the reduction of approximately 3 GW of power injected by renewable plants to ensure their sustainability. Reviews of the safety criteria and technical assessments of the plants currently connected to the grid are underway.
One of the fronts identified as promising for mitigating the effects of curtailment is the use of energy storage technologies. Oliveira argued that batteries offer flexibility, especially in meeting intraday load variations. For storage to advance in a sustainable manner, it is necessary to adopt models that prioritize affordable tariffs and qualified competition.
Costa added that Matrix, in partnership with Huawei and the ONS, is conducting tests in an experimental regulatory environment (sandbox) with technologies such as grid forming, virtual inertia and microgrids. The intention is to simulate the technical attributes of these solutions and structure a new phase of services to the system, in a more efficient and secure way.
In the assessment of participants, capacity auctions will be key to unlocking investments and ensuring the expansion of the generating park safely. The expectation is that the government will move forward with the auction of thermal plants this year, although ANEEL signal that the regulatory process may make this unfeasible in the short term. The storage auction, however, is likely to take place in 2026, with a good chance of being held in the first half of the year, according to estimates by the debaters.
Experts believe that, with the ongoing changes in the market and the growing demand for resilience from investors, the next auctions should prioritize more flexible and sustainable technologies. According to them, the opportunity lies in building a new capacity market — both thermal and batteries — that is more mature and driven by economic efficiency.
The meeting promoted by Greener highlighted the need to align planning, regulation and technological innovation to face the challenges of the sector. Overcoming curtailment requires a coordinated effort between government, investors and operators, with a focus on energy security and affordable tariffs for the consumer.
Vision of the future and balance for the electricity sector
According to Márcio Takata, director of Greener, the event exceeded expectations by promoting an in-depth discussion on the challenges and opportunities of centralized generation.
“The proposal was to present an updated overview of the market, with evolution indicators and scenarios for centralized generation — a segment that is facing a particularly challenging moment,” he pointed out.
“What surprised us most was the quality of the debate, which focused not only on current difficulties, such as curtailment, but also on future possibilities. We talked about alternative paths, technological solutions and ways to mitigate the side effects of the expansion of solar energy,” highlighted the executive.
According to him, the meeting was extremely positive in this regard, as it allowed us to constructively discuss the next steps to make the sector more balanced. “The vision I advocate for the coming years goes beyond simple energy generation: we need to talk about balance, capacity and flexibility. This will increasingly be the central equation of the sector,” he concluded.
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