The solar energy market in the GC (centralized generation) segment is expected to experience a turning point throughout this year, after ing growth of over 50% in 2024.
This is the main conclusion of the new strategic study by Greener, which provides updated data on the expansion of large photovoltaic plants in Brazil.
The main factor behind this change in scenario is the combination of low energy prices and the worsening of the curtailment – which reached, on average, 17,1% of plants between April 2024 and March 2025.
According to the consultancy, these two issues increased the perception of risk among investors, requiring entrepreneurs to pay greater attention to the technical viability of projects.
“The challenging moment in the market is illustrated by the price of energy, which challenges the closing of contracts, by generation cuts (curtailment), which generate losses for generators and high interest rates, which impact investments”, highlights the study.
On the other hand, in 2024, centralized photovoltaic plants received a massive volume of investments, driven by regulatory decisions that made new projects viable. “Currently, 5,7 GW are under construction, with emphasis on the growth of the free energy market”, highlighted the document.
Reduction in module imports
According to the research and consulting firm, around 5,1 GWp in photovoltaic modules were imported by the GC Solar segment in 2024 – a drop of 18% compared to 2023, when the volume was 6,2 GWp.
Even with the decline in imports, contracts signed between manufacturers and buyers in the period from March 2024 to February 2025 total 5,4 GWp, signaling investments of over R$14,5 billion over the coming months.
PPAs
In the contracted energy segment, 2,4 GWp were mapped in PPAs and self-production projects in the same period, maintaining the same level as the previous year.
Of this total, 90% correspond to contracts made possible via self-production by matching – reinforcing, according to Greener, the leading role of this model in the new initiatives of the Free Energy Market.
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