Heat causes demand for electricity to soar in November

ONS estimates that consumption will vary by 11%, compared to an initial expectation of growth of 7,6%

1 min 39 sec read

The electrical energy load, represented by consumption plus electrical losses, is expected to reach 79.781 average megawatts (MW) in November, a positive variation of 11% compared to the same period last year. If this value is confirmed, it will be the first time this year that the load rises above two digits.

According to the ONS (National Electric System Operator), for the next operating week (11 to 17/11), “the forecasts are for an increase in average temperatures in a large part of the country, a condition that has an impact on the load.” Due to the climate, there is a greater use of refrigerators and air conditioning.

In the previous bulletin, the ONS estimated a demand of 77.394 MWmed for November, an increase of 7,6% compared to the same period in 2022.

Demand by submarket

The Southeast/Central-West subsystem, the most important in the country, is expected to reach a load of 45.513 MWmed, a variation of 12,1%. The biggest variation will be in the North, with a 15,6% increase, followed by the Northeast (11,6%) and South (4,4%).

According to the ONS, the gradual resumption of a free consumer from the basic network in the aluminum sector has been impacting the growth rates presented in the North subsystem since the second half of 2022.

The heat wave is expected to last until the middle of next week, potentially leading to record temperatures in the country. In some cities, maximum temperatures are expected to exceed 40 degrees. One of the factors that influence temperatures is the El Niño climate phenomenon, in addition to man-made climate change.

Check the variation in the load of the National Interconnected System in 2023 compared to 2022:

January: 71.290 MWmed (-1,3%)
February: 74.713 MWmed (0,5%)
March: 75.292 MWmed (0,3%)
April: 69.998 MWmed (-0,9%)
May: 72.805 MWmed (4,7%)
June: 71.077 MWmed (3,8%)
July: 70.244 MWmed (1,4%)
August: 72.734 MWmed (3,1%)
September: 75.234 MWmed (5,8%)*
October: 77.513 MWmed (6,3%)*
November: 79.781 MWmed (11%)*

*The numbers presented between September and November are preliminary and must be verified.

heat energy demand ONS (National Electric System Operator) high temperatures

Wagner Freire

Wagner Freire is a journalist graduated from FMU. He worked as a reporter for Jornal da Energia, Canal Energy and Agência Estado. Covering the electricity sector since 2011. Has experience in covering events such as energy auctions, conventions, lectures, fairs, congresses and seminars.