Generation outages remain high even after methodology change

Renewable generation curtailments continued to rise in the third quarter, even after the change in methodology implemented by the ONS (National System Operator) from the second half of September. This information was released in the “Curtailment Digest”, a new report by Itaú BBA, which monitors energy restrictions.

According to the ONS, the change in procedure aimed to increase the reliability of the SIN (National Interconnected System), preventing restrictions from being concentrated in specific generator groups or regions. Initially, this new methodology was applied only in Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará.

Itaú BBA concluded that the ONS achieved its proposed objective. “[…] The ONS’s changes to its reduction procedures distributed the effects of the restriction over a larger area, mitigating the impacts on some projects that were previously heavily affected, such as Echoenergia (Equatorial) and AES Brasil.”

Still, renewable energy generators in the Northeast continue to suffer from cuts in the third quarter, especially in Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte, compared to the second quarter of 2024. “The total impacts of the restrictions corresponded to approximately 14% of all renewable energy generation in the third quarter,” highlighted Itaú analysts.

The report compared the two-week periods before and after the methodology change (September 3-16 and September 17-30). Wind power outages were 15,1% before the change and rose to 15,6% after the change. Solar power outages rose from 19,2% to 19,7% over the same period.

“Although the new methodology has expanded the scope of affected generators, as intended by the ONS, it has not reduced the overall level of restrictions. In the 14 days following the change, the volume of reduced energy was slightly higher: 6.507 GWh, corresponding to 16,4% of total generation, against 6.391 GWh, or 15,9% of total generation, in the previous 14 days,” the analysts said.

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