The MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) opened, last Tuesday (3), Public Consultation No. 186/2025 to discuss with sector agents possible changes in the mathematical models that guide the operation of the Brazilian electrical system and the formation of the PLD (Settlement Price of Differences) – a reference indicator for the short-term market.
The three main institutions involved in the management and planning of the sector – ONS (National Electric System Operator), CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber) and EPE (Energy Research Company) – recommended maintaining the current risk aversion parameters used in the computer models that the operation of the system.
According to these institutions, the parameters in force have proven effective in adequately representing the operational reality of the national electrical system, ensuring safety and efficiency in the management of energy resources.
The public consultation will be open for contributions until July 3, 2025. If changes are decided, they will need to be approved by July 31, 2025, so that the new parameters can come into effect in the first week of 2026, respecting the sector's regulatory deadlines.
The debate over a possible review of the risk aversion parameter gained momentum after the implementation of Newave Hybrid in January 2025. This new version of the model began to consider hydroelectric plants individually, replacing the old approach that grouped plants by equivalent basins. The objective of this change was to bring planning models closer to the operational reality of the system.
However, the introduction of Newave Hybrid resulted in a more conservative operation. The model began to give greater weight to rainfall forecasts, reducing the influence of energy stored in reservoirs. As a consequence, there was an increase in the PLD and greater volatility in the free energy market, even in periods when the reservoirs were at high levels.
Click here to access the public consultation documentation.
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