The energy load of the SIN (National Interconnected System) is expected to grow, on average, by 3,4% from 2025 to 2029, according to data from the 1st Quarterly Review of Load Forecasts for Annual Energy Operation Planning, released last Friday (04).
The document is signed by ONS (National Electric Sector Operator), CCEE (Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber) and EPE (Energy Research Company).
For 2025, the projected growth is 3,7% in global load, reaching 82.871 MWmed. In 2029, the value of 94.573 MWmed is forecast. The data considers MMGD (Micro and Mini Distributed Generation) and the integration of Roraima into the SIN in January 2026.
The GDP growth expectation for 2025 was maintained at 2,2%, influenced by the statistical carryover resulting from the higher-than-expected growth of Brazilian GDP in the 4th quarter of 2024, offsetting the effects caused by the scenario of greater inflationary pressure and the return of the interest rate hike cycle. For subsequent years, the qualitative assumptions and GDP growth projections were also maintained.
MMGD Growth
MMGD's installed capacity projection for 2029 increased from 56 GW to 64 GW in the 1st RQ PLAN 2025-2029. On average, an annual increase of 1,4 GW was made in relation to the previous projection.
In 2029, total MMGD (base + expansion) reaches 9,9 GWmed, with an average annual growth of 12,8%.
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