Energy consumers make their decisions individually. Each factory chooses the start and end times of its work shifts; businesses have their own variations, depending on whether they are a neighborhood store or a store inside a shopping center; and the same occurs in homes, with showers in the morning, late afternoon or in the middle of the night, using the washing machine during the week or only on Saturdays, and so on.
All of these habits end up materializing through electricity consumption curves. Each consumer ends up having an “energy identity,” which translates their consumption habits into load curves. In several places around the world, including California (USA), the grid load curve is known as the Duck Curve, which is when there is a very large difference between times of high consumption and times of high energy injection into the grid.
This is a highly undesirable phenomenon that needs to be controlled to prevent the electrical system from collapsing. The most efficient way to maintain this friendly relationship with the grid is to store some or all of the energy surplus from peak generation times to discharge it into the grid at peak consumption times.
In Brazil, the figures below show the hourly consumption curves for a period of one week (day 1 is Sunday). In Figure 2, for example, we can see the profile of a consumer who only consumes energy during the day, with a short break for lunch, every day of the week, including Saturdays and Sundays.
Finally, in Figure 4, we can observe a consumer who does not consume during the weekends.
Ultimately, different habits mean different needs. Understanding these habits means knowing what offer to make to each type of consumer, so that the added value of a service or product is maximized, increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. volt robotics, we developed intelligent algorithms that mapped these habits for more than 30 thousand consumers and, thus, we were able to know who to offer storage, solar generation, energy efficiency, etc.
Our clients use these profiles to operate commercially in locations and regions where their products and services are competitive, making unbeatable offers. Here is the testimony of a Volt client who works with hybrid systems with solar energy and storage systems: “We reduced the area of operation of our sales team and concentrated the marketing actions, including digital media, for the regions where our target consumers were located. The result: we reduced costs and increased sales. It was something that seemed impossible.”
But the system is made up of millions of consumers, each with their own habits and energy identity. By adding up all these energy identities, we obtain Brazil's consumption profile. Accessing the website ONS (National Electric System Operator), we can visualize Brazil's consumption profile at different times. For example, on a typical business day in 2017, Brazil had the consumption profile shown in Figure 4.
There is a decreasing consumption from midnight to 4 am; From then on, consumption increases until 11 am, presents a slight reduction for lunch and a slight recovery in the early afternoon, showing a new increase in consumption in the late afternoon, between 17 pm and 18 pm, and then a decline until 23 hours.
One of the operational challenges that the ONS faced every day was having machines available in hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants to be progressively activated in order to make the energy supply sufficient to meet consumption safely.
Just to give you a numerical idea of the challenge, at 4 am the consumption was in the order of 52.000 MW, while at 11 am the consumption was in the order of 66.000 MW. In other words, in seven hours there was an increase of 14.000 MW in consumption, or a “ramp” of 2.000 MW per hour. At the end of the afternoon, in just one hour, consumption showed an important peak, with a ramp of 5.000 MW per hour.
Therefore, one of the biggest challenges of the operation every day is to get the plants to follow the consumption ramps. This must happen every day, without Saturdays, Sundays or holidays. Moving forward a little in time, we reached 2023 and performed the same analysis on a typical business day, resulting in the orange curve in Figure 5.
The first notable fact is the growth in consumption, especially during peak hours, at 18pm: in 2017, the peak was approximately 70.000 MW; in 2023, 81.000 MW. An increase of almost 16%, or an equivalent annual increase of 2,5%.
The second notable fact is the end of the morning ramp. In 2017, as we have seen, the ramp was 2.000 MW per hour; by 2023, it has reduced to less than 500 MW per hour. Have consumers really changed their consumption habits that much? Have transportation systems stopped transporting people in the morning? Have offices and factories stopped starting their workdays in the morning?
The answer is NO. What happened was that systemic consumption began to be met in the mornings by solar energy, both centralized and decentralized. In 2017, solar energy was practically non-existent. Currently, there are more than 28.000 MW of installed capacity in decentralized generation, and another 14.000 MW in centralized generation. In of energy, there are approximately 8.000 MW on average, as illustrated in Figure 6.
While the morning curve was eliminated by solar generation, in the late afternoon – when the sun sets – the increase in consumption began to occur at a more intense pace. In 2023, the afternoon ramp begins practically at 11 am, with a consumption of around 65.000 MW, and reaches a peak of 81.000 MW at 18 pm, that is, the ramp lasts seven hours, at a load increase rate of approximately 2.300 MW per hour.
In short, there is currently a single afternoon ramp, of 2.300 MW per hour; in 2017, the most intense ramp was 2.000 MW per hour and occurred in the morning, and another ramp occurred late in the afternoon. It's as if the camel had turned into a dromedary!!!
These ramps can be seen as a risk to the operation or as a business opportunity. It all depends on how we evolve regulation and, above all, pricing. If the ramp is seen only as a risk, the solution will be to contract many thermoelectric plants to be activated during the afternoon period to ensure that we can safely meet peak consumption.
The cost will be very high and will likely be socialized among all consumers through the Capacity Charge. If the ramp is seen as an opportunity, we will improve the pricing mechanisms and tariff structure to reflect the need for expensive resources at the end of the day. energy price and the fare will be more expensive in the late afternoon, and cheaper during periods of low consumption (early mornings or early mornings, for example).
Consumers, wanting to escape expensive prices and, at the same time, consume at lower price times, will change their habits and their “energy identities”, install storage systems and afternoon consumption will be reduced, the load curve will have a much smaller peak, consequently reducing the need for thermoelectric plants.
By reducing the peak consumption in the late afternoon, the curve will no longer resemble the dromedary, giving rise to a new animal that we will still have to study carefully. In your opinion, what animal would this be? Leave your comments on this article and the discussion.
