The projection of the national electricity load points to a growth of 3,4% (72.878 MWmed*) in August, according to the Monthly Operation Program bulletin released last Friday (28) by the ONS (National Electric System Operator) .
“The most significant increase should be in the North, a behavior that has been recorded for months due to the resumption of free consumer activities in the region: 7,8% (7.317 MWmed). For the Northeast, the expectation is 4,7% (12.140 MWmed), followed by the Southeast/Central-West, with 2,8% (41.065 MWmed); and in the South, with 1,4% (12.356 MWmed)”.
The energy load represents consumption plus electrical losses in the SIN (National Interconnected System). The percentages compare estimates for the end of August 2023, compared to the same period last year.
Regarding energy storage, the forecast is that all submarkets will be above 70% at the end of August 31st, being: 90% (North), 82,8% (South), 79% (Southeast) and 73,1% (Northeast).
Regarding ENA (Inflow Natural Energy), the scenarios are compatible with the typically dry period currently underway. The Southeast/Central-West has the highest projection for ENA, with 85% of the MLT (Long Term Average), followed by the North, with 71% of the MLT.
The percentage for the South is 69% of the MLT and, finally, the Northeast must 51% of the MLT. ENA represents the water that reaches the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants with the potential for conversion into electrical energy. The MLT is the historical average measured by the ONS.
The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) remains at zero in all subsystems for the thirty-second consecutive week, a pattern that began at the end of December 2022. There are seven consecutive months in this condition. It is the longest period of CMO being reset in a row in the historical series monitored by the Operator.
*Average megawatt
