The ONS (National Electric System Operator) revised, last Friday (16), the load estimate of the SIN (National Interconnected System) for the month of May. The new forecast points to an average consumption of 77.738 MW – a decrease of 1,6% compared to the same period last year.
The scenario contrasts with the projection released earlier this month, which indicated growth of 1,9% (80.542 average MW). If confirmed, this will be the first load drop recorded in 2025.
According to the ONS, the revision was motivated by the milder temperatures observed, lower than those initially projected. Colder weather reduces the use of refrigeration and air conditioning systems, directly impacting energy consumption.
Load forecast by subsystem:
- Southeast/Midwest: -4,8% (43.157 MW average)
- South: +0,4% (13.018 average MW)
- Northeast: +3,3% (13.471 average MW)
- North: +5,5% (8.092 average MW)
Although three submarkets showed growth, the decline in the Southeast/Central-West, the country's main consumption hub, is decisive for the national decline.
Hydrological conditions
The ENA (Natural Affluent Energy), which represents the volume of rainfall with energy generation potential, remains below the MLT (Long Term Average) in all subsystems this month.
The South stands out, with ENA estimated at only 31% of MLT. In the other regions, the percentages are:
- Southeast/Midwest: 84% of MLT
- North: 68% of MLT
- Northeast: 45% of MLT
Storage levels
The EAR (Stored Energy) forecast for the end of May in the Southeast/Central-West – which concentrates around 70% of the SIN storage capacity – should reach 69,5%.
In other submarkets, the estimated levels are:
- North: 97,6%
- Northeast: 73,8%
- South: 32,6%
CMO
The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) ed an increase in all regions of the country, a movement observed since the previous week and attributed to the forecast of reduced flows, especially in the South.
For the next operating week, the values are:
- North and Northeast: R$ 268,42/MWh
- Southeast/Midwest: R$ 269,66/MWh
- South: R$ 325,24/MWh
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