The ONS (National Electric System Operator) released the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the week between November 30 and December 6, already presenting indicators that point to the end of 2024.
The highlight is the gradual recovery of the main reservoirs of the SIN (National Interconnected System), although still below ideal.
Three subsystems are expected to reach EAR (Stored Energy) levels above 40% by the end of December, with the South having the highest percentage (60,5%), followed by the Southeast/Central-West (48,7%) and the Northeast (46,8%). The North region should be at 38,3%.
According to the ONS general director, Marcio Rea, the recovery reflects the first positive impacts of the wet period, but is still far from compensating for the severe drought recorded at the beginning of the year.
“The data indicate that by the end of December the recovery of reservoir levels, after a period of severe drought, was not yet complete, despite the progress we have made,” he said.
The executive highlighted that the initial rainfall volumes of the wet season have remained within expectations and that this would be a positive point. “We continue to closely monitor all these indicators, seeking to anticipate the demands for the operation and planning of the system next year,” he stated.
Affluent Natural Energy
According to the ONS, the Southern subsystem also stands out in the ENA (Influent Natural Energy) projection, which could reach 136% of the MLT (Long Term Average) at the end of December, which represents a volume above the project for the Southeast/Central-West (95%); North (84%) and Northeast (60%).
The Operator highlights that this improvement in inflows contributed to a reduction in the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost), now standardized at R$5,91 in all regions, a significant drop in relation to the previous projection of R$90,83.
Growth in energy demand
The bulletin also forecasts a 0,5% increase in energy demand in the SIN, totaling 80.805 MWmed. This increase reflects a gradual recovery trend in consumption in different subsystems.
The greatest acceleration is expected in the North region, with 11,8% (8.143 MWmed). The South and Northeast should also expand: with 4,8% (14.497 MWmed) and 1,4% (13.592 MWmed), respectively.
Only the Southeast/Central-West has an estimated reduction: 2,9% (44.573 MWmed). The numbers are comparisons between the projections for December 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
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