The solar GC (centralized generation) segment is characterized by large-scale photovoltaic plants on a public utility scale, with one of its main functions being to produce renewable energy to be distributed by the SIN (National Interconnected System).
These plants are usually contracted at auctions promoted by the Brazilian government. However, in recent years the segment has recorded notable growth due to the Free Energy Market and self-production.
O Canal Solar carried out a survey to show how this evolution has been over the last three years (2021-2023) and what the projections are for 2024 and 2025.
In this report you will find:
- What is the installed centralized solar power capacity?
- How many projects received grants from ANEEL?
- How many projects came into operation between 2021 and 2023?
- Which projects are expected to come into operation between 2024 and 2025
- What is the PLD projection for 2024 – 2025?
- Growth trend in consumer demand on Mercado Livre
- Load projection for SIN from 2024 to 2028
What is the installed centralized solar power capacity?
According to data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), there are currently 18.207 plants in operation, totaling a capacity of 11 GW, representing 5,81% of Brazil's electricity matrix.
It is worth noting that the first solar GC projects in the ACR (Regulated Contracting Environment) came into operation in Brazil in 2017. In the case of the ACL (Free Contracting Environment) it was in 2020. Of the little over 11 GW, around 4,2 GW are in the ACR and 6,7 GW outside the ACR.
How many projects received grants from ANEEL?
Extracts 260 projects (8,5 GW) are the solar projects granted by ANEEL. A total of 183 plants are under construction, totaling 7,5 GW. Of the remaining, 77 plants (1,07 GW) have a construction status not started.
How many projects came into operation between 2021 and 2023?
During this period, 204 plants began commercial operations, totaling 7,75 GW. The annual distribution looked like this:
- Source: ANEEL
Which projects are expected to come into operation between 2024 and 2025?
For this biennium, 257 plants are planned, totaling 9,6 GW of power. The annual distribution looked like this:
- Source: ANEEL
What is the PLD projection for 2024 – 2025?
The PLD (Difference Settlement Price) is a market indicator that prices energy on the spot market. It is fundamental in the Free Energy Market business, mainly to measure the viability of generation projects.
If the PLD rises, the price of energy increases in the Free Energy Market. The higher the price, the more viable the ventures become in this business environment.
The CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber) publishes the PLD projection monthly for a 15-month horizon.
According to the latest projection (December), the PLD should remain at R$61,07 MWh until March 2025.
However, the PLD reveals short-term prices and generation projects are developed based on the long-term price.
Growth trend in consumer demand on Mercado Livre
According to data from the ANEEL, updated on December 31, 2023, a total of 14.345 companies have already decided to migrate to the Free Energy Market between 2024 and 2025.
CCEE announced last year that around 24 thousand consumers should make this decision in 2024.
In total, after Ordinance 50/22 comes into effect, it is estimated that the migration potential will reach 165 thousand companies.
Load projection for SIN from 2024 to 2028
The projection of growth in energy load in the SIN (National Interconnected System) is fundamental to dictating the pace of demand for electricity in Brazil.
The most recent data, released in December by the ONS (National System Operator), CCEE and EPE (Energy Research Company), point to an expansion in demand of 3,2% on average between 2024 and 2028.
The forecasts take into a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate of 2,0% in 2024, 2,2% in 2025, 2,3% in 2026, 2,5% in 2027 and 3,0% in 2028.
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