Due to ive policies and favorable economics, the the world's renewable energy capacity is expected to increase over the remainder of this decade, with global additions on track to nearly match the current capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined, according to a new IEA report (International Energy Agency) released this Wednesday (09).
The study concluded that the world must add more than 5.500 GW of installed capacity in renewable energy between 2024 and 2030 — almost three times the increase observed between 2017 and 2023. In of technologies, it is expected that solar PV alone will for 80% of global renewable capacity growth by 2030 – result of the increase in GC (centralized generation) and GD (distributed generation) installations.
Despite ongoing challenges, the The wind sector is also poised for a recovery, with the expansion rate doubling by 2030, compared to the period between 2017 and 2023. According to the IEA, wind and solar power are the cheapest options for adding new electricity generation in almost all countries.
The Agency further highlighted that China is expected to for nearly 60% of all renewable capacity installed, based on current market trends and current government policy settings. This would make the country home to nearly half of total capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of one-third in 2010. While China is adding the largest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
As a result of these trends, nearly 70 countries that collectively for 80% of global renewable energy capacity are on track to meet or exceed their current renewable ambitions for 2030. The growth, however, is not fully in line with the target set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference in December 2023 to triple global renewable capacity this decade. The report predicts that global capacity will reach 2,7 times its 2022 level by 2030.
The IEA’s analysis suggests that fully achieving the tripling target is entirely possible if governments seize opportunities for near-term action. This includes outlining bold plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, due next year, and stepping up international cooperation to reduce high financing costs in emerging and developing economies, which are constraining the growth of renewable energy in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets. This is driven not only by efforts to reduce emissions or increase energy security – it is increasingly because renewables now offer the cheapest option for adding new power plants in almost all countries,” said Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director.
According to the Agency, renewables are on track to generate almost half of global electricity by 2030, with the share of wind and solar PV power doubling to 30%. However, the study emphasizes the need for governments to increase their efforts to safely integrate variable renewable sources, such as PV and wind, into power systems.
Too much data
Recently, curtailment rates – where renewable electricity generation is not put into use – have been rising substantially, already reaching around 10% in several countries today. To address this, countries should focus on integration measures, such as increasing the flexibility of the power system.
Making a concerted effort to address political uncertainty and streamline licensing processes – and building and upgrading 25 million kilometres of electricity grids and achieving 1.500 GW of storage capacity by 2030, as highlighted in previous IEA analyses – would enable even greater shares of renewable energy generation.
Overall, led by massive growth in renewable electricity, the share of renewables in final energy consumption is set to rise to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. Meanwhile, renewable fuels — the subject of a special chapter in the report — are lagging behind, underscoring the need for dedicated policy to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify.
According to the research, meeting international climate targets would require not only accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, but also significantly accelerating the adoption of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels. As these fuels remain more expensive than their fossil equivalents, their share of global energy is expected to remain below 6% in 2030.
The IEA also looks at the state of renewables manufacturing. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to sur 1.100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double projected demand. While this oversupply, concentrated in China, has ed a decline in module prices—which have more than halved since the start of 2023 as a result—it also means that many manufacturers are seeing major financial losses.
Given the growing international focus on industrial competitiveness, solar PV manufacturing capacity is expected to triple in India and the United States by 2030, helping with global diversification. However, producing solar s in the United States costs three times more than in China, and in India it is twice as expensive.
According to the Agency, policymakers should consider how to strike a balance between the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing, weighing key priorities such as job creation and energy security.
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