New global solar additions will reach 698 GWp in 2025, representing a 17% increase from the 599 GWp added in 2024. The projection was released this week by BloombergNEF at an event hosted by IA extension (China Photovoltaic Industry Association).
This number would be higher than the forecast made by the entity itself at the beginning of the year, which estimated a volume of 670 GWp for 2025. According to the analysis, the solar source should an average growth rate of 3,6% per year until 2035.
In 2026 and 2027, the forecast is for 753 GWp and 780 GWp to be installed, respectively. The symbolic mark of 800 GWp will be sured in 2028, reaching 993 GWp by 2035.
Until then, the China will continue to be the world's leading solar market, with a forecast of 368 GW installed in 2025 alone. Of this total, a large part will be large-scale projects, but commercial and residential systems are also planned.
Our United States, growth will remain strong, even with political uncertainty. The forecast is 54 GW in 2025, slightly above the record 50 GW installed in 2024. The advance has been driven by large companies, mainly in the technology sector, which continue to invest in clean energy.
According to BloombergNEF, one of the main factors that should continue to stimulate the growth of solar energy in the world is the significant drop in the price of equipment.
The entity points out that, between January 2022 and January 2025, the prices of photovoltaic modules fell by 60%, while those of solar cells fell by 44%, wafers by 79% and polysilicon by 84%.
This cost reduction, according to the entity, opens space for the entry of solar energy into markets that are still little explored, such as Türkiye and Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, lower prices have also put pressure on manufacturers' profits along the supply chain, leading to sector consolidation and expansion of production outside China.
A BloombergNEF highlights, for example, that India is already the world's second largest hub for manufacturing solar modules, with 74 GW of annual capacity, followed by the United States (50 GW) and Vietnam (40 GW).
Thailand, with 34 GW of cell production capacity, and Vietnam, with 30 GW in wafers, also stand out.
Assessment of the current scenario
Ao Canal Solar, Felipe Santos, regional director of LATAM at DAH Solar, stated that the data presented by BloombergNEF reinforce the trend of constant growth in the photovoltaic sector, even in the face of a challenging global scenario marked by geopolitical tensions.
The segment's progress can also be seen in other recent projections, such as that of think tanks Australian Climate Energy Finance (CEF), which estimates that global solar manufacturing capacity should reach 1,8 TW by 2025 – triple the volume recorded the previous year, according to report published by Canal Solar this week.
“The issue of the current imbalance between supply and demand is being mitigated, in the short term, by the production quota system implemented at the end of 2024. In the medium and long term, this adjustment should occur naturally, as new technologies advance, obsolete production lines are discontinued and capacity expansions are analyzed more carefully by manufacturers,” Santos assessed.
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